The Guy on the Horse in 1895 (And Why That's You Right Now)

We're judging AI by today's limitations, just like people dismissed the motor wagon in 1895. Here's why that's dangerous.

It’s 1895. You’re on your horse riding with a buddy. You then see a motor wagon at a distance. Your buddy says, “That motor wagon can never be as fast or haul as much as a horse can. They won’t take off.”

131 years later, it’s 2026, your buddy says, “AI creations will never be as good as humans.”

Same thing is happening, just in a different time period. But why did I bring up the motor wagon? Because if we look at how far cars have come since 1895, those people couldn’t have ever imagined that cars would be faster than a horse. Or that the Ford F-150 would be a thing that can haul more than they could ever imagine. Or could have ever fathomed 18-wheelers carrying houses across the land.

I have a hunch that AI will do and be the same. We keep judging AI by its capabilities that we are currently aware of. We can’t foresee the “F-150” of AI, like you and your buddy couldn’t foresee it back in 1895, talking smack about the motor wagon.

Ok, so why do I even bring all this up? I say we need to be more humble with our predictions of what AI can or can’t do in the future. People remember the start. When AI couldn’t make hands. They believe that flaw will set the base for future updates. But now not only can it make hands better, it can talk, create realistic images and video. It can mimic voices so accurately that there’s a real risk of someone getting your voice and likeness. Someone can call your grandma and ask for ransom money because they look and sound exactly like you. That’s a scary reality. What I’ve done with my mother is set up a code word, like a home alarm system.

So why does this matter? Who cares if we can’t foresee the next version?

People now say AI will never write a Pulitzer Prize novel. They say it will never make an Emmy-worthy film. They say it will never make a Grammy-winning song. But what if that confidence is simply you on a horse in 1895, dismissing the motor wagon?

What if in 10 years, AI does win a Pulitzer? What if the “F-150 of AI” isn’t just better tools but AI that thinks, creates, and collaborates in ways we literally cannot imagine right now?

If that happens and you weren’t prepared, if you dismissed it as impossible, you won’t just be wrong, you’ll be left behind.

There’s a quote from Seneca that hits home with this

“Unexpected misfortune strikes us more heavily.”

I take this as, the punches we don’t see coming hit harder than the ones we do see. So we need to start getting ready for the punches, instead of everyone TALKING about how they won’t come. Those people will get hit the hardest.

This is why I’ve started learning how to use AI. And not just the LLMs. Making images, video, writing, music, and even apps. I don’t want to be the next Toys”R”Us. And it’s not that Amazon took them out. It’s that they didn’t want to adapt and they stayed “tried and true,” and then lost to online shopping. Don’t be Blockbuster either lol.

So be a little more humble with your predictions. Start learning how to use AI so that IF the equivalent of the F-150 happens with AI, the blow won’t hit as hard because you were ready for it.

Don’t be the buddy on the horse in 1895, so sure of yourself that you miss the 18-wheeler coming. Be humble. Be curious. Be ready.